There are more than a dozen computer models that project the paths of hurricanes. For the past two years, the so-called GFDL model, run by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N. J, has been the most accurate. Yet, even this sophisticated model misses by an average of about 100 miles a mere two days before a storm makes landfall.
, and subscribe today! The most reliable and accurate forecast for hurricane track and intensity in the Atlantic ocean is the official forecast produced by the National Hurricane Center. It consistently outperforms individual computer models, and that makes sense because those models are tools the NHC uses to make their forecast.
When I was writing we ran into the inquiry “How good are the NHC track forecasts for Atlantic storms?”.
As usual, in 2019 the official NHC track forecasts for Atlantic storms were tough to beat, though the European Center (ECMWF) model did outperform the official NHC forecast for one-day and two-day forecasts. The UKMET model was the second-best model in 2019, closely followed by the COAMPS-TC model .
How accurate is the NOGAPS hurricane forecast model?
NOGAPS wasn’t specifically designed to forecast hurricanes and is better used as tracking-only model. As you can see from the chart above, the lines keep going lower each year, suggesting better accuracy over time. The red line is the 24-hour forecast, which will always be better than the blue line (120-hour forecast).
The UKMET model was the second-best model in 2019, closely followed by the COAMPS-TC model. The performance of the Navy model (NAVGEM) and NOAA’s GFS, HWRF, and HMON models lagged behind. Here is a list of some of the main hurricane forecast models used by NHC: Navy: Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).
California’s ski resorts are digging out from under 5 to 9 feet of snow that has fallen over the last several days from a series of storms. And more snow is on the way. The big picture: A large dip, or trough, in the jet stream across the West is allowing.
What was the most devistating hurricane?
Hurricane Andrew made history in 1992 as one of the strongest hurricanes to hit the South of Florida. Hurricane Donna was the only storm that reached an intense category 4 during the 1960 hurricane season. Lake okeechobee – $336 billion, ike – $295 billion, or cuba-florida – $387 billion might be interesting too.
There were a record 18 weather and climate disasters costing and caused an estimated $125 billion in damage, making it the second most costly hurricane to the United States in over 100 years. All data on the number of at-risk homes and reconstruction.